By Justin Taylor
Draft day and the all the potential player movement that
comes with it is this Thursday. Don’t let the headline fool you, I wouldn’t
trade either of the Warriors young wings for the number one pick in this draft.
Discussing a trade involving Klay Thompson or Harrison Barnes for anybody not
named Lebron James or Kevin Durant is going to inspire a lot of negative
reactions so it had better be for a a bonafide All Star. Bob Myers and Jerry
West have already had this conversation so it’s time for us to play catch up.
You can’t be caught flat-footed when the phone rings and
it’s a team trying to make a deal for a superstar. Determining who has the most
potential, who has the most value to the Warriors and who is worth the most on
the open market is a critical exercise for a GM, especially one with more
assets than money or draft picks. No major deal is going down for the Warriors
unless they’re willing to sacrifice something valuable and you know Steph Curry
isn’t going anywhere. The obvious next step is to determine which of these two
young, cheap, potential stars come in
second on the trade value depth chart.
As a fan of both players I think I can speak to who is more
valuable to the Warriors without my bias taking over. Everyone knows us Golden
State fans love our homegrown guys to a fault so I’ll start with Bill Simmons’ Annual
Trade Value column to get a prominent outsiders’ objective opinion for the
league wide opinion. His process values things like age, money and potential
over name value or past performance, which is exactly what I’m looking for.
On this years list Klay comes in at #47 and his explanation
was more of an insult than anything else. Harrison Barnes doesn’t even crack
the honorable mention that precedes the top 50. How can I take this shit seriously?
I can’t do it. You know what? Fuck Bill Simmons and disregard that last
paragraph!
Klay Thompson
Klaymetheus is a better nickname than the Black Falcon is that counts for anything
(Credit: @Jesse_Garnier from SFBay.ca for the design)
Halfway through the season I said Klay would have the better
career of the two and damn near got laughed out of the room. This was right after
he personally coughed up a couple of games in a row but my logic then is the
same as it is now. His career arc is just easier to project. I’m not breaking any
news here but Klay Thompson is 23 years old and has a top ten, if not a top
five, shot in the league. That alone guarantees him a 12-14 year career barring
injury.
Klay’s biggest deficiencies (other than his personality) are
actually part of reason why he’s more likely to be the better pro. The aspects
of his game that need to improve are things that come with experience. The game
just needs to slow down for him. He made a ton of bonehead plays this season
that mostly boiled down to him rushing everything from his shot, to his drives
to his pouting. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the light bulb doesn’t go
on with him.
Reggie Miller comes to mind when thinking about what his
ceiling as a player may be even if it doesn’t feel like a good match. He’s
already a better defender and rebounder than Reggie so it’s not out of the
realm of possibility. Finding his basement is an easy one though. The names
Dale Ellis and Dell Curry come to mind immediately and both of those guys were
effective role players until the day they retired. Worst case scenario, the
Warriors will have two Currys if all he ever does is improve is shot selection.
It may not be the highest reward but it’s definitely the lowest risk.
I may or may not have talked shit about Barnes before last
year’s draft for underachieving in college. It was mostly because I wanted
Damian Lillard to back up Steph Curry but the realization is that his problem
at North Carolina wasn’t his poor play, it was unrealistic expectations. The
kid was named a preseason All American as a freshman for god sake. By the time
the playoffs arrived he was flying under the radar. When David Lee went down,
he blew up and now he’s trying out for Team USA.
That’s quite a swing from overrated to underrated and
possibly back to overrated. I say that because that the loss of our only All Star
didn’t just free up more shots for Barnes, it gave him better matchups. It was
no coincidence that his confidence skyrocketed against slower power forwards in
Denver and smaller guards in San Antonio. His consistency issues, outside of
being a rookie and the coach was yanking him all the time, for those other 82
games had to do with all of those athletic small forwards in the NBA.
Moments like that posterization of Anthony Randolph are
either building blocks of a great legacy or reminders of how good things could
have been. He’s not on that level but it can be similar the reason why people
get so frustrated by Lebron. When you see the potential to be the greatest ever,
just being top ten of all time becomes unacceptable somehow. Barnes has All Star potential and it’ll be
a disappointment if he’s “just” a quality starter for the next ten years; even
if I said I’d be happy with exactly that on draft day.
The Black Falcon could soar as high as James Worthy when it is all said and done but there is some serious downside potential to his game too. I'd say the safe middle ground might just be his current
teammate and mentor Richard Jefferson.
The Verdict
If Klay just learns to be patient and then attacks when he gets overplayed
he'll never lose his allowance again
When I said Klay Thompson would have a better career I
wasn’t saying that he was more important to the Warriors future. That is
exactly what I’m saying now. At this moment there are hardly any two guards in
the league that can actually shoot and defend on Klay’s level. On the flip
side, there are a number of guys who can give you what Harrison is only
projected to do.
Where is there a bigger shortage? Klay Thompson’s charisma
or NBA shooting guards? Actually, don’t answer that. The point is that even
with the lack of twos in the league I think Harrison Barnes will get a bigger
second contract due to his size, athleticism and marketability. The ability to
pay Klay less actually makes him more valuable to the salary structure of the
team.
Barnes big time performance against San Antonio means he may
be the bigger trade chip as well. Considering that this conversation is only
relevant if a major deal for a superstar is on the table that is important to
know. It’s also important to keep in mind who the guy we’re trading for would
rather play with. Klay is creating space for a big man or a slasher when he’s
standing 30 feet from the basket and he doesn’t even need the ball to pull the
defense away from the paint. He may be prickly at times and pouty at others but
when it’s all said and done, he will be keeping defenses honest for a minimum
of the next ten years.
I enjoyed the article Justin, and ultimately I agree with you about keeping Klay over Barnes if you have to trade one. A couple things that I disagree with though: Your Lebron analogy - he is the best, not just top 10; I feel like people's frustration with Lebron at this point is mostly delusional.
ReplyDeleteAlso, why do you think Klay will get a smaller contract than Barnes? You said it yourself: there's a lack of dynamic 2 guards and players like Barnes are fairly common. The only way Barnes really becomes THAT marketable is if he becomes an all-star (in my opinion unlikely, but we can hope!)
Anyway, thanks for the article!
Thanks for weighing in Eli! I know it's a tough question...no easy answers...
DeleteGreatest of all time vs. Top 10 of all time was the Lebron analogy (clearing that up now)...As for the contract situation, I just feel like Barnes will command more...He'll do more to excite another teams fan base (and sell more jerseys)than Klay will and that would lead them to overpay...Just my own gut feeling more than anything else...