Thursday, June 14, 2012

Golden State picks, proposals and prophecies


By Justin Taylor

I have three torturous pastimes in the month of June each year.  Watching teams other then my own in the playoffs, reading ridiculous mock drafts and hysterically bad trade scenarios.  I wish I had a life so I could just brush off 90% of the crap proposed on fan sites (like this one) and reputable news columns alike.  If I alotted this much energy, focus and time trying to get ahead at work I’d be in line for a major promotion; but I don’t so I’m not.  It is such a waste of time in most cases but there is no denying that the NBA silly season makes for great conversation.  The fact is a majority of these trades wouldn’t happen on a cold day in hell unless David Kahn, Chris Wallace or Billy King were the ones fielding the offers. 

I can’t remember the last time there were so many trade possibilities here in the Bay.  This year the deals coming out of the Golden State Rumor Mill are more full of shit than a toilet at the Staples Center.  Why spend time reading and talking about a trade for Nicolas Batum when his restricted status makes it fiscally impossible.  It’s been fun to take part in the madness but more and more the realization is that our tradable assets outside of the picks aren’t worth the paper their contracts are printed on.  For the Warriors to match up the money for a marquee player some combination of Richard Jefferson, Andris Biedrins and Dorrell Wright will need to be included the deal.  For some reason I don’t see many teams jumping at those names in order to get the number seven pick in the draft.  Having a direct line from Jerry West to Chris Wallace in Memphis might help us instead of the Lakers this time around but I don’t think it will matter. 

I’ve gone ahead made a few proposals of my own and outlined a few that everyone has already heard in some form.  I also went ahead and gave each one a short and long term grade of sorts that you can agree with or rip to shreds; this is the internet after all.

Who's ready to go all in for the next 3 years and beyond?

Andris Biedrins, Dorrell Wright, and maybe Jeremy Tyler plus pick #7 To Memphis for Rudy Gay

A line up of Gay, Lee and Bogut up front with Curry and Thompson in the backcourt is about as balanced as an NBA roster gets.  The can shoot; they can defend; they can rebound.  So what’s not to like you ask?  It depends on how excited you are to pay Lee and Gay $35 million of your sub $60 million dollar salary cap in 2014.  Paying over half of your budget to an aging David Lee (31 in 2014-15) and an aged beyond his years Rudy Gay (29) is not quite the same as committing $37 million to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook who will both be 26 in the 2014-15 season.  Once you give a generous number to Stephen Curry and a resigned Andrew Bogut (call it $25 million combined) along with the final years of Thompson’s rookie deal (approx. $5 million) you’re capped out before you remember there are more than five guys on a team.  I can see Memphis accepting this trade for the same reasons I don’t want the Warriors to offer it.

Short Term Prognosis:  We’d have a fun team and would be no less then a fifth or sixth seed immediately.  Whatever happens this season would be the norm for the next two or three because the line up will barely change.     
      
Long Term Prognosis:  Trapped in Golden State.  Having no flexibility to continue adding to the bench let alone the core will not be pretty after 2 or three years.  If it doesn’t turn us into instant contenders it will turn us into the most cash strapped mediocre team in the league for years to come.

Igoudala is a smaller long term risk with more upside for the team

Andris Biedrins, Dorrell Wright, Jeremy Tyler plus picks #7 and #30 for Andre Igoudala and pick #45

As much as we hear that Philly wants to cut costs I can’t for life of me figure out why they’d partner with the Warriors to do it.  It’s basically a matter of adding the 7th pick and some second rate depth while saving about $6 million dollars.  The problem with these deals is that the only way Golden State can get the money to match is to include Biedrins or Dick Jefferson; if Jefferson were included instead of Goose the Sixers would clear a whopping $2 million before signing the pick.  Are the Sixers that deep of a team that they can’t find a way to get Iggy and Evan Turner on the floor at the same time?  Are they really better off with Turner, an unproven rookie and a 26-year-old flame out in Biedrins?

Short Term Prognosis:  I would absolutely love having AI at the three.  He brings athleticism, intensity, defense, rebounding, he’s in his prime and he’s not overpaid!  How many examples like that are there in the league?     
      
Long Term Prognosis:  I see this working out great over the next three years.  After that his contract is up and the direction of the team will determine how we move forward.  I really don’t see the downside if Philly is dumb enough to give us their best player for Biedrins and a rookie.

Andray Blatche knows how to stink up the joint.  Ask Dominic McGuire.

Dorrell Wright and Jeremy Tyler plus picks #7 and #35 to the Wizards for Pick #3 and Andray Blatche

Sometimes you’ve got to give and take to take.  Blatche is owed almost $25 million over the next 3 years and is probably one of the top 5 boneheads in the game right now.  On the young Wizards he’s an all out cancer but what is he when you’ve got character guys and a preacher for a coach surrounding him?  He would be a reclamation project that Mark Jackson could really hang his hat on.  Make no mistake though, he will be a Warrior for the duration of his contract, Washington has damn near been trying to give him away since the day after he signed that ridiculous contract.  If you end up with Thomas Robinson no one will remember Jeremy Tyler’s name and if you get MKG at #3 along with Kevin Jones, Festus Ezeli, Draymond Green, Fab Melo or Drew Gordon at #30 it won’t be much different.  The biggest drawback to this deal would be the fact that our cap takes a hit over the next few years but you’ll be adding a potential all star at best and quality depth at worst.  

Short Term Prognosis:  This trade would allow the team to continue building without mortgaging the future completely.  On a team with such a high basketball IQ Blatche’s brain freezes may not be a big deal

Long Term Prognosis:  Blatche’s contract is way bigger than it should be but it isn’t a back breaker.  If the right pieces are added with this year’s picks we could be set to improve dramatically over the next three years and start contending for consistently deep playoff runs after one more year spent developing the youngsters.

#7 and #30 picks to Houston for picks #14 and #16

Personally I’d rather just use the 7th pick on Dion Waiters or a falling Bradley Beal who inexplicably is projecting to the Warriors on NBADraft.net.  If neither of those guys are around at seven I wonder if Houston has someone they’d like to move up for.  In this scenario you could probably get a Terrance Jones, PJIII or point guard Kendall Marshall since one will be dropping and a big man like Meyers Leonard, Arnett Moultrie or John Henson.  In this case we also keep pick #35 where we could potentially land the sinker of the bunch out of Kevin Jones, Royce White, Festus Ezeli or Andrew Nicholson.

Short Term Prognosis:  When you’re talking about pick for pick it’s hard to say what we’re getting with any kind of certainty.  In this draft I’m really not sure how much more valuable the 7th pick is over the 14th or even how much the 16th pick is worth over the 30th.       
    
Long Term Prognosis:  No more Trapped then we are right now or would be otherwise.  Depending on whom you get with the 16th pick it could be a wash or a disaster if the 7th pick hits big.  It pretty much falls in line with my overall sentiment below, accumulate assets and get ready to swing for the fences at the deadline.

Mbah a Moute comes with a reasonable contract, a consistent game and a big heart

Dorrell Wright and picks #7 and #35 to Milwaukee for Luc Mbah a Moute and pick #11

Here is a smaller deal if management doesn’t think they can hold onto Dominic McGuire.  I actually think the Mbah Moute would be an upgrade because you get a little bit of offense along with the guy you stick on opposing teams top scorer every night.  You also get a guy with a superior work ethic who along with Lee will set a good example for the youngsters and whomever we get when we trade down a measly four spots.  You may not even need to throw in the 35th pick to make it happen.  If you haven’t noticed yet, I kind of want to get rid of Dorrell Wright.  The only thing he can show the new guys is where he stands on offense, where he stands on defense and where he cashes his check on the first and fifteenth.  His reasonable and expiring contract is the other part, the Warriors just don’t have much to offer that upgrades another team or trims their payroll outside of the picks.

Short Term Prognosis:  I’m a fan of this deal and you could still end up with a Sullinger or a Jones (1 or 3) at #11 so it’s a low risk medium reward proposition.

Long Term Prognosis:  Same as the short term.  If you end up with one of the guys the Logo wanted at seven you basically just got a solid NBA player for a second round pick and a guy that seemed to be running from his shadow on the court all year.

After reviewing all of the prospects and available players I have no problem with the team using all of their picks or trading forward or back.  Chasing a guy like Brandon Roy to fill some of the void at the three while accumulating assets to prepare for a midseason blockbuster trade is the best course of action.  If we want to limit the risk of being Trapped in Golden State for too many more years we shouldn’t mortgage the future for anything less than a true game changer.

107 comments:

  1. Hey, Justin, thanks for the heads up on this article.

    Personally, I appreciate the time and foresight you've given the above scenarios, which is a lot more than most of the writers I've seen on BR.

    As much as Gay and Iggy, and for that matter Josh Smith or Al Jefferson would be a positive for the W's should they remain healthy for the next 2-3 years, I wouldn't pull the trigger on those. At their ages, they would be prone to an injury more than a youngster, everything being equal, and, would give the W's less financial flexibility, as you've mentioned.

    I am a bit surprised to see a Blache scenario; you're the first to propose this, I believe. Yes, sometimes a team has to think outside the box in order to acquire a quality player or two and this might be just the one that could elevate the team into the next tier (meaning we get into the second round of the playoffs as I believe we are already a contender for the 7-8 slots with the personnel we have right now. If it's true what I hear that Charlotte actually likes Barnes over MKG now, viola, we get exactly what we need the most. I too, want to get rid of DW but would love to keep Tyler for his promise.
    The trade with Houston is one a lot of folks have proposed but is perhaps the best scenario if we cannot move up for MKG. I too cannot see a lot of value difference between the #7 slot and the 14, so why not ?
    And the trade with the Bucks I also like. Again very original. LBaM I've seen on TV a bit this year from here in SE Asia and love his skills and motor a lot. I also think they should hold onto Mc Guire as well...cannot have enough good defenders who can also rebound, handle the ball well and play with his toughness.
    A question for you: As I know little to nothing about Charlotte's roster, I am wondering if you can imagine any trade scenario that would have us obtain their #2. I do hear that whilst they would love to have a stud rookie tied up for years, they are also much in need of many good players, not just one and are shopping the #2 around. Of course, I'm sure the W's are not the only ones who will talk with them about this.

    Nice article, mate. Again, thanks for the heads up. I'll also check you out on FB.

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey Mr. Mean,

      As always, thanks for the read and the feedback...I checked the Bobcats scenario and didn't see anything that didn't involve giving up Curry or Thompson so I left it alone. I tried to be as realistic as possible which meant taking back bad money (Blatche) and giving up a halfway promising piece (Tyler) in all big deals. Even then I don't get why Philly would give us AI as I'm sure there are other teams interested that could put together a more attractive package.

      Delete
    2. I just realized... AI II. LOL.

      Delete
  2. Proposition #1 : Rudy Gay. Deal done, bring him. Give me 5 reasons not to do this. I will give you 10 reasons why to do it.
    Proposition #2 : Andre Igoudala. A friend sold me on the contention that point guard needs outweigh SG. I feel Klay will be more prepared to play after going home with the understanding of what's needed to excel here. I feel strongly about Thompson.
    Proposition #3 : Andray Blatche. 6 years to prove some worth & still not in the picture with the WIZARDS? When you play on a team of this caliber & you have talent you should be on the court more than 24 min a game. Why isn't he??? Something just isn't kosher. I feel I could get these same qualities from PJ3(?name the player) at #7(or 12?) without surrendering the other picks. For a questionable liability? Nada.
    Proposition #4 : I feel that the players in the "teens" have better value. Here's why. Dropping to # 14 to get Waiters is a winner. Yet his value is strongly on the upside. Climbing daily & wouldn't be surprised if he didn't pass Lillard. I feel Waiters is a unpolished diamond who is a keeper. Regardless if he gets to Phoenix at #13 he will be taken. I've stated I feel the value in this draft is between 12-28. Value to me in this deal is that you can get a better deal at 14 by getting the same basic player for less money than #7. Then this leaves you with the trade of #30 pick to move up to #16. G.S. also could trade #16 for additional picks. I see this as a steal if this scenario presents itself.
    Proposition #5 : Mbah a Moute. After first spitting I researched his possibilities I agree that he could be a asset to the W's. Sold me with this: "superior work ethic". I want someone that when his tongue hangs on the floor, it's time for rest. This all out effort idea needs to be instilled here. When is it time for substitution? When the stretcher is needed. They do in "Beantown" & in the "Alamo". Why cant we do this here in Oakland?
    In conclusion I feel that deal #1 bringing Gay to the bay area would tell me to talk to Direct TV to get all of the W's games. Hostage to the flat screen. Yet I'm also not too stupid to realize this money would be well spent on visions of Warriors games which resulted in WINS(& playoff games). Funny thing this season in my thinking. I feel Lacob & mgt. would pull the trigger on this & I like that gambler attitude. Yet when reality sets in door #4 is where I lay anchor. Yes this deal gives you 2 very worthy opportunities with the ability to dangle the #16th in front of other teams noses. More gambling by trading value in picks. The best & smartest win at this yearly.
    The NBA draft is very similar to the N.Y.S.E. You can gain value on the upside or the downside. The key is to know where the value falls & who wants to play "cards". For a person who is skilled on true player evaluation this draft is a dream. I have good feelings on this draft. I usually don't get my hopes up due to our elite W stats we put up each of the past 30 season but I bank much of my thinking on one thing. I believe Bogut is truthful when he states that he will heal. Curry has stated this last clean out was successful. We will have many pieces to this puzzle which are in place before the season starts. Been a long time since I cracked a smile prior to the opening tip off of the season. J, someone mentioned that MKG could fall to 7? No way right? Let me know you thoughts on that one. "Mr. Mean" mentions going up to get MKG but I just feel the price is far too steep for the rewards purchased. Not that I don't like MKG, just too pricy. I still see us getting Ezli. I think he brings what our needs show. If you're a poker player this draft is for you. S

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I've been promoting moving up for Beal, T-Rob, or MKG -or- the 7/30 - 14/16 deal also. Unless they can move up, I get the feeling there's going to be a a player the Logo & the W's really like at 7 and they're not going risk losing them by trading down. It could very well be someone like Waiters, Lillard, Myers, or Zeller that's projected to go in the teens.

      If a late PF/C pick like Ezeli were to pan out as a low quality starter/high end backup PF/C the W's could be in business.

      Delete
    2. Warriors might pick Lillard at 7. Another Monta Ellis type? Or is he better than Ellis right now?

      Delete
    3. Never seen him play tbh, but I'm all for it if the W's think he's the best player available.

      Unless maybe your initials are L.J. or K.D. basketball is a team sport. The main other concern w/ Lillard would be how he fits w/ the on-court chemistry. The W's brass needs to believe Curry & Lillard and/or Lillard & Thompson can play unselfish basketball & work together as a team. Kind of like Rush & Thompson did last year and unlike Ellis & Curry much of the time.

      Delete
  3. No way in hell MKG falls...Beal? Maybe a longshot in hell...

    In the Gay scenario my concern isn't this season even though we will have depth problems. The concern is that we will be at our ceiling this year and I can't help but wonder if that ceiling is still a little low considering we're all in for the next four years.

    The Blatche proposition is all about the number 3 pick and getting it without giving up too much talent by taking back the bone head...Definitely not because I think he'll be some sort of steal. Dorell Wright, Jeremy Tyler, and say Sullinger at #7 is a worthwhile deal for Beal, MKG or Robinson and the overpaid idiot...point is, none of our options are going to come without taking back some sort risk in the cash-flow issues.

    I wonder what Jackson thinks about coaching Waiters because the only questions about him are work ethic and attitude...Huge issues but ones that Jackson is best suited to handle. I still don't have a problem taking him at 7 if the logo likes him.

    As always, thanks for weighing in SRG...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My fathers day present would be for Jackson to step to the plate & show me true coaching skills. Intelligence is needed. Again if a few things go our way? I try not to get my hopes up but this season. Maybe its just me but I have a more positive outlook over past openings. To all the fathers present Happy Fathers Day & maybe our W's issues solved will substitute for a new lawn mower to wear out on Sunday's. I knew that MKG deal would get a rise out of you. LOL. I wouldn't take Waiters with the 7th pick!! Again I say let someone else who wants a specific player at #7 to trade with & move down for Waiters, if he's even the want. I just don't think he would fall past Phoenix. Again I love the trade of #7/#30 for #14/#16. Then maybe trade #16/#35 for maybe #13(or?) Then opportunities exist to make a deal midstream during the draft. Opens all roads for dealing as I see it. Great value in the teens. I feel that deal opens doors up for our best interests. We then have cards to play with. #7 is a looser as I see it. Pick 7 spots lower, like talent, less cash, good business decision. MGB day. Later J. S

      Delete
    2. Unlikely scenarios...

      1. Davis
      2. MKG
      3. T-Rob
      4. Barnes
      5. Beal - W's 7th, 30th, & D. Wright to Sacto for 5th.

      or

      5. Drummond
      6. Beal W's 7th, 30th, & D. Wright to Sacto for 6th.

      Delete
    3. I mean to Portland at 6 ...

      Delete
  4. Trading D. Wright makes sense, but only if the W's sign B. Rush. It'd be nice to trade him for a quality backup/low end starter PF/C in a deal like the Mbah a Moute one.

    The Blatche deal would be palatable at 2 years, but the W's don't seem to keen on knuckleheads. S. Jackson escaped GS faster than you can say Mbah a Moute.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I say we can do without Wright's indecisiveness and softness one way or the other...lol...

      Delete
    2. Sign Rush & McGuire Lacob,mgt. Do as J.R. says above. Get rid of players which showed lackluster efforts last season. This disease has infected G.S. for too long. Make players here accountable for their actions Jackson. Lead our flock to the promise land in 2012. S

      Delete
    3. Brandon Rush will be back or I might turn my back on the Dubs, as hard as that would be. If Mcguire doesn't come back, it would be rough, but we all know he pulled his weight more than Effen R Jeff did. Nobody seems to want Nate back... lol. As it should be.

      Delete
    4. I'm calling your bluff Shawn...after all of the suffering through the years I have a hard time that Brandon Rush will be the straw that breaks the camels back...lol...I want him on board too but things are finally looking to be trending in the right direction either way...

      Delete
    5. It's going to be tough if a team offers Rush a lot of money. Unless maybe the W's trade Jefferson &/or Wright...

      Will Rush perform at the same level when not playing for a contract?

      Delete
    6. That's always a HUGE factor...when you couple that with your point about playing primarily against second unit/tier competition he definitely performed to his peak potential.

      The thing that always stuck out was hustle, focus and just making the right play...he never tried to play outside of himself and I respect the hell out of that...I hope no one matches our offer cause I enjoyed watching him go about his business last season.

      Delete
    7. Rush & Thompson caused a lot of probs for opponents. They actually looked to get each other open shots, if only Ellis & Curry had...

      Delete
  5. Idk about indecisiveness but he does kind of tip-toe around & avoid contact. If you look at the # of games he missed early in his career, maybe he figured out the following formula...

    Tip-toeing = Less contact = No injury = $$$ :D

    Wright's game wasn't much different last year, it's just that they brought in some more 3 shooters in Thompson & Rush. They can always use Dorell's 3 shooting and he's earning his pay but Thompson, Jefferson, Rush & Wright is sort of redundant. A lot depends on who they draft & Rush.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The biggest difference with Wright this year was that he actually had guys running at him because the scouting report finally respected him out behind the three line this year. While his shot was noticeably more flat he was also being defended differently. He did learn how to pump fake and drive this year but he would be looking to pass the entire time even when the matador defense was in play and finishing strong was the move to make; that led to so many turnovers that should have been dunks and layups. I can't tell you how frustrated I was to see that over and over and that's why I've been calling for a trade of him since February.

      I don't know if I've gone from liking a guy and his contract to hating him and not caring how reasonable a deal he's playing on faster than D. Wright...soft indecisive play, indifferent demeanor, lazy D, no boards...I just want him gone...

      Delete
    2. Very true on players keying on him... Maybe this helps?

      Dorell Wright Minute adjusted stats.

      Yr------Min--FGA---FG%--3pA--3p%--Reb--Stl--TO--Blk--Pts

      2011@27---8.6---42.2---4.8----36-----4.6---1.0--.8---.4---10.3

      2010@38---14----42.3---6.3---37.6---5.3---1.5--1.6--.8--16.4

      2011@38---12.1--42.2---6.8---36-----6.5---1.4--1.1--.6--14.5

      Delete
    3. Not really...lol...I'm sure someone will at some point me to some +/- as justification but I won't care...if anyone was shooting 6.8 3pt shots a game it should have been Curry, Thompson or Rush...He definitely regressed this year (not of the Andris Biedrins variety but still) and unless he comes to camp as a McGuire type defender and rebounder who can knock down the corner three consistently my calls to get rid of him are only going to get louder.

      Delete
    4. I've been saying all along that Curry needs to shoot more, hopefully he'll get the chance next year.

      Fair enough on D. Wright. There's some other stats here that prove you right. The link below gives a summary of how the W's fared by position & is worth a look.

      The problem spots were at SF and especially at the C position. The chart shows that as long as GS shores up the rebounding & C position they can afford to lose the SF battle by a bit. The Net Production by Position or 3rd chart in the link is the one that's most relevant.

      http://www.82games.com/1112/1112GSW5.HTM

      You can also check the 2010-2011 numbers and it's interesting that they show the SF position to be almost even vs. opponents.

      http://www.82games.com/1011/1011GSW5.HTM

      The final links show Wright's on-floor vs. off-floor production for 2010-2011 vs. 2011-2012. Based on those numbers his performance was way down but you can bet a lot of that was affected by the presence of B. Rush. One factor that doesn't get considered is Rush playing w/ & vs. the 2nd units. Unlike Curry & Ellis, Thompson and Rush worked incredibly well together and they pretty much made the W's 2nd team as good as or better than the first. The simple rating in the final column is net performance and the one to look at.

      2012 - GSW Team Stats

      http://www.82games.com/1112/1112GSW.HTM

      2011

      http://www.82games.com/1011/1011GSW.HTM

      Delete
    5. Thanks for the links JR, I'll be checking them out today...only briefly though, I've seen enough of Wright to last me a lifetime. It's too bad because he SHOULD be able to do everything that is making us clamor for Rush to get resigned...

      Delete
    6. It's a start, but the #'s don't exactly give true value in part because it measures "the player relative to the players that substitute in for him."

      I was looking at some of the rumored SF's on there also. Based on the simple ratings they suggest R. Gay looks like a no go but AI looks very worthy.

      For the W's, Tyler & Biens didn't fare too well lol. Jenkins didn't either but that's because he's being scored vs. Curry or Ellis. Bogut & Curry grade out nicely if you go back to past seasons.

      Delete
    7. That's why I don't pay too much attention to stats because they can be skewed by your own bias or someone else's to frame your argument...People usually only bust out stats if the suit their cause...Kind of like how a gambler only tells you about the bets he's won...lol

      Delete
    8. There's value in stats, just ask Billy Beane. The thing is, you just can't look at them as the whole truth. There's always factors that skew them one way or another.

      That's what's interesting about the 82games site, they publish alternative stats that aim to give a truer picture of a player's worth. It works to some extent but there's still different factors to consider.

      Delete
    9. It all depends on who's using them and what there arguments and motivations are. I don't watch much but that is the premise I like about that show on ESPN "Numbers Never Lie"

      Delete
    10. I'm not disputing what you're saying at all though. Here's my use of stats in the Monta trade: Everyone is concerned about scoring right? If Klay can replace 15-18 of Monta's 20-25 nightly and you factor in Curry's increase due to more shots available, Bogut's 10 point increase over the current 5 spot and the overall increase in efficiency you are ahead of where you were. I probably do need to spend more time understanding the advanced metrics but I consider myself more artist/writer than mathematician...lol

      Delete
    11. I'm $0.98 on board w/ that, & am more sports stats guy than math guy :)

      The reasons you mentioned is why a big $ SF wouldn't help that much.

      For my long winded 2¢ extra...

      1. Some of Ellis' shots were too difficult out of necessity, but there were also too many ESPN top-10 play attempts. That's not uncommon...

      2. Klay can shoot 10 3's per game if he wants & I'd be thrilled. But, he's not very efficient yet inside the arc. If he becomes a Jedi Master at scoring inside the paint like Chris Mullin then look out.

      One of my favorite stats that 82games tracks is "Effective Field Goal Percentage" (eFG%). It's not really advanced metrics here & just measures FG% + the extra points you get from hitting 3's. You only get so many shots so every point counts w/ eFG%

      Basically, if someone shoots 40% on 3's that's 4 of 10 and they'd get 12 points. 12 points is the same as shooting 6 of 10 on 2's or 60% from 2 pt. FG's. So 4/10 on 3's is 60% eFG% but the eFG% formula calculates all the 2's & 3's together.

      EFG% = (FGM + (0.5*3PM)) / FGA

      So if you're talking 20 shots w/ 4 3's made & 6 FG's it goes like this...

      10 + (.5 * 4) / 20 = (10 + 2) / 20 = 60%

      eFG% is...

      1. Why Curry's value will be huge if..if..if..(JT©)

      2. Why Ellis for Bogut made sense.

      3. Why players like Rush, Wright, Thompson, and Jefferson have a lot more value than most people think.

      4. How the W's were able to compete when getting outrebounded by double digits a night.

      5. (Isn't) going to save the W's just yet...


      Getting to the line and clutch points is one of the key stat that isn't measured in eFG%. That's where the W's will really miss Ellis as per the link below. Thompson & Lee were awful in the clutch so GS really needs them to step up or for Curry & Bogut to. 3's are a lot harder to hit in the 4th qr. when the game is on the line.

      http://www.82games.com/1112/CSORT11.HTM

      Delete
    12. Thats basically the argument for the column I'm trying to post by tomorrow night.

      Delete
    13. Now if you can get players that have a high eFG% and/or that rebound, defend, and get to the line then...

      Bogut will help w/ the rebounding and this is another reason why Beal looks rock solid even if it's just the NCAA #'s.

      SG - Beal eFG% 52.5% - Rebounds 6.7 p/g - 1.4 stls p/g - .8 blocks
      ----
      SF - Jeff Taylor (30th pick or trade up a few slots to get him.

      eFG% 57.5% Rebounds 5.6 avg. - stl. 1.3 p/g

      http://www.nba.com/draft/2012/prospects/jeffrey-taylor/

      *Extremely athletic -- GS need
      *Lockdown defender -- GS need
      *Good rebounder -- GS need
      *Improving 3-point shot -- Can't hurt

      Delete
    14. That's great stuff JR. One of the biggest shortcomings for the Dubs is the lack of free throws in comparison to other teams. This is a two fold fix as you know... Better defense and better decisions on the offensive side of the court. Relying on three pointers heavily is something that improves eFG% but it is overrated if you do not have the slashing, driving to the rim game as well. The Warriors are starting to fix this with Bogut who can play inside and draw fouls, while making foul shots at a good rate. This is huge as teams will unlikely play hack a Bogut (or Lee for that matter).

      The problem is we have no one who attacks the basket from the perimeter and draws a good number of fouls from the wing position.

      Beal or Waiters would be a good fix here as would Lillard. Each has it in his game to get to the rack and the line... at the #7 pick.

      Jeff Taylor is the type of player also who could fix many things, and I love what the scouts say about him. As a SF, he a bit small at 6-7 and 212, but your bullets above are what everyone says about him. I've read he has added to his game in the last year as his FG% and PPG have risen, he has also really improved his 3 ball. Taylor could be perfect for the Dubs at 30.

      If we do draft this way, a 1/2 or combo guard at #7 and a SF with the 30th pick, that means we could be working Rjeff and Dwrongway (Dwright) out of the rotation in time. Waiters or Beal would back up Thompson and Rush would slide to the 3 which is his more natural position.

      Interestingly, if this is the idea, Waiters or Beal are better than drafting Lillard who has always been a point and if he plays the 2 for us, it means we are back where we were with an undersized 2 ala Monta Ellis. I do think very highly of Lillard as a 1 and that is the only thing I would want him to be for the Dubs.

      Curry and Thompson have potential to be great players, but I do not see Curry taking contact as he goes to the rim, rather he looks to avoid it. I would like him to learn some of the aggression Ellis showed which made him a fan favorite, although undersized. Thompson seems to be a little more willing to use size and quickness to beat a defender to the rim in heavier traffic. Still I would love for Klay to be more aggressive especially cutting without the ball.

      Delete
    15. Beal seems like he'd be ideal, not sure what to think on Waiters & Lillard. Now that there's a C/PF combo in GS, an undersized PG/SG combo would be ok but it has to be 2 really good players that work together. Curry is sort of an in between PG/SG so I think that gives them flexibility but a pass 1st PG that can also get to the rim would be ideal if it's not a do-it-all rebounder scorer like Beal.

      Curry's shots inside the paint dropped down from his rookie year & I think that's mainly because of the ankle, & because the W's weren't as much of a fast break team as before. What's interesting is that his eFG% for shots "close to the basket" was only 51% while his jump shots came in with an eFG% of 59%. The latter # is pretty darn good when you consider Ray Allens' eFG% was at 55% from outside.

      As per the link below... Nearly half of Curry's shots outside the paint were assisted while jump shots from Thompson, Rush, Jefferson, & Wright came in at about 80% assisted. That's why I think Marshall at the PG spot is starting to sound very interesting. It'd be bombs away all day, especially when teams now have to contend w/ the likes of Bogut AND Lee in the paint.

      http://www.82games.com/1112/11GSW6.HTM
      http://www.82games.com/1112/11GSW3.HTM

      Delete
  6. Im pretty sure the Grizz might not take that deal they said they would want David Lee Dorrel wright and the #7 pick just for Gay

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do you feel Memphis would accept the Lee salary issue? Just curious.

      Delete
    2. It would be nice if they would...I just don't see the logic. After signing the pick they are actually spending more money for more years to get a back up power forward. That would kind of defeat the purpose of trying to clean up the books in a Gay trade.

      Delete
  7. The Andre Blatche trade is interesting... I like the creativity but I doubt the Wizards do that trade. But then again they are the Wizards. I like the other trades too because they are all different and interesting but somewhat realistic. Great article Justin!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks ap...I know the Wiz are dying to get rid of him but it would depend on how bad and how much they like one of the guys at #3. Jeremy Tyler might really sweeten that deal since they'll get 2 young guys instead of one and a reasonable expiring contract in Wright. We'd be stuck with Blatche but Robinson, Beal or MKG might be worth the headache.

      Delete
    2. Funny picture for the wizards one lol

      Delete
  8. before reading any comments... I have something to say... I have decided that Damian Lillard is likely to be the next Derrick Rose/Russel Westbrook type. Lillard has the potential to be a 2nd year MVP the way Rose did. Will he? I don't know. What I mean is that if he is that big of a prospect, then I want the Warriors to draft Lillard at the 7 spot. He is very likely to be there unless Portland drafts him above us at 6, which is not expected by most. So then what? Another Monta Ellis type? Yes he is... but at his age, I believe Lillard is better than Ellis was at that age, and has a much higher ceiling. Lillard's floor is Monta Ellis. At this point in time, he has all the offensive talents of Ellis, the to the rack game, the midrange, and the three point shooting that it took Ellis years to put together in a complete game. (Only recently has Ellis had a reliable three point shot.) In addition, Lillard is more a natural passer and ball handler than Ellis is now. I know Ellis is gone. So, now trade Curry. YES.

    Thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My thoughts are...1)You're making me want to look at Lillard much more closely, I never saw a single minute of him in college so please post a link or some background info on him cause you've peaked my interest. 2)Saying he's a better ball handler and passer then Monta isn't saying much but saying Monta is his floor is pretty bold. Biggest question there is can he stay in front of opposing PGs and do it willingly? I've said I want a real PG and he doesnt fit the mold but from what I have seen (not much) I think he can break down the D enough to get shooters open and big men easy dunks.

      You may be swaying me Shawn so now I'm going to look at him closer. The Warriors did just that over the weekend when they had him in for a workout.

      Delete
    2. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyFJOEjZPFw this was a shooting exhibition for the Kings. Count the missed shots... maybe 2, 3? This includes midrange and threes moving without the ball and with the ball. Also you will see cone work with dribble penetration. I know there are no defenders here, but the kid looks great. Also see http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Damian-Lillard-6152/ This is an odd but nice look at Lillard. Jeff Teague Ronnie Price are mentioned as his ceiling and base but that is BS. This is why I say it is odd. I know that in College he was at a Mid Major. Look at his ppp points per possession in various scenarios... ie iso, spot up, transition etc found at 1:22. Also at that point in the video the speaker (his Weber St coach Randy Rahe) states he averaged 24-25 points a game on basically 15 shots a game. Efficiency... 46.7%FG, 40.9% 3pt FG, 88.7% FG. Made the 2nd most free throws in Divison I College Basketball last year as well as 2nd in scoring. Just watch the rest of it and I can assure you this is not another Jeff Teague! LOL. This is a better Monta Ellis who can run the point every day. At the end of the video is a very interesting weakness portion that highlights his passing, lack of midrange game (although he knows how to use the floater with or without the glass) lack of great defense although he only allowed .54 ppp on isolations he is not great at coming through screens and weak side help, and the fact he played in the Big Sky Conference can hurt him. In competition against Cal and BYU he shot 29% and scored 14.5% per game. That hurts. He did score 36 against St Mary's. There is some more growth that is needed. What Lillard says about his team is that two of the more productive players on the team were injured this year, so he did have to take up more of the scoring slack and his assists suffered for it.
      Lastly look at this from the combine courtesy of ESPN's Chad Ford...

      "Weber State's Damian Lillard was the real star of the draft combine. He was the best player to agree to do the drills and it paid off for him. Many of the NBA executives in attendance had never seen him play in person before and the rest had only seen him only a handful of times. Lillard shot the lights out, had a couple of terrific dunks in the drills and 3-on-3 play, played hard and was very good in interviews with teams.

      His measurements also turned out to be eerily similar to Derrick Rose. Rose measured 6-1 1/2 in socks and 6-2 1/2 in shoes in Chicago in 2008. Lillard was 6-1 3/4 in socks and 6-2 3/4 in shoes. Rose had a 6-8 wingspan, while Lillard had a 6-7 3/4 wingspan. Rose weighed 196 pounds, while Lillard weighed 188. Both players measured with a 40-inch max vertical. Given Lillard's rep as a scoring point guard, he's got to like the similarities.

      I believe Lillard's range starts with the Blazers at No. 6. I doubt he slips past the Phoenix Suns at 13. He's got workouts in Toronto on Monday, as well as Sacramento and Phoenix this week." I took that from this page off ESPN... http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/blog/_/name/nba_draft/id/8036913/nba-wrapping-nba-draft-combine Lillard's is the third bullet in this story.

      I love him. I think Steph Curry is not trustworthy going forward. As soon as possible, I want the Dubs to cut ties with Curry... Now don't get me wrong. The best case scenario may be to see how Curry comes back from injury and to let him build up his trade stock and show the league he is healthy. To me that means as soon as possible is trade deadline this next year. On the other hand, if he is not progressing in his recovery, deal him before the season for a future second rounder. I would not complain if the situation looks bad on the recovery front. I know what Steph is... one of the best shooters in the NBA already. What if what he really is... is Grant Hill? A guy that takes 3 years to recover from this injury before he becomes a reliable guy?

      Delete
    3. That is the last thing the Warriors team or fans want at this point. As fans we have to consider that to be a possibility. The Warriors management have put the chips in the middle with Steph as the face of the Franchise, but they have to realize that Steph may not be reliable as well.
      Yes Lillard has weaknesses, but wouldn't you want an Ellis style player next to Thompson more than Curry anyway? Yes! Why have a backcourt that is great at shooting 3s and not much else. C'mon! Seriously? Are we back to Nellie ball?

      Delete
    4. Totally agree about Lillard. Shoots the J from inside or outside the arc and free throws as well as Curry, better assist to turnover ratio/better decision maker, better slasher and finisher, better attitude, tougher, more competitive and motivated, better defender and no injury history. And, he's from Oaktown and a life long fan of the W's. What's not to like ?

      I say trade Curry to Bobs for #2 pick and take MKG there and Lillard at #7 or use #7 and #35 and perhaps D. Wright's expiring contract if we feel like he will go higher.

      Line up set for years with this:

      PG Lillard, Kidd or Andre Miller, Jenkins
      SG Thompson, Rush, Jared Cunningham
      SF MKG, RJeff, Chris Wright
      PF Lee, McGuire, Tyler (perhaps better there than at the 5)
      C Bogut, Mahinmi, draft pick

      Delete
    5. In regards to Steph, there are no sacred cows on this team. Unless your winning nobody is untouchable. The only reason I don't want him included in anything right now is that I want to give him a chance to recover some of the value he's lost. It may be risky because the injury concerns may not go away.

      If they were to draft Lillard and Curry's regains his health you think Orlando listens to Curry/Bogut for Howard? (and we'll even throw in Wright for good measure...lol) I don't see anyone else making an offer except a Pau/Bynum deal which is far fetched...It's a risk due to contract situation but think about that package...Hibbert/Granger or even better Paul George or some other big deal...I think giving up assets for picks right now is selling ourselves short...let's accumulate assets and gear up for the big one!

      Delete
    6. I think Howard will not likely resign here. I remember he said he would like to play with Monta Ellis. He never said he wanted to play here. The only realistic scenarios to trade for Howard included Ellis. Now that Ellis is long gone I don't think we have much to offer, nor do I want to for a rental. Curry/Bogut for Howard? Why would either team do it? I want a star here, but for the long haul.

      Delete
    7. See my potential lineups (like yours Mr Mean)
      Does this give us a playoff lineup?
      Point - Andre Miller, Lillard, Charles Jenkins
      Shooting guard - Thompson, Rush
      Small Forward - Mcguire, Jefferson, Chris Wright, and Budinger/Parsons?
      Power Forward - Lee, Tyler, Moultrie
      Center - Bogut, Ezeli, Gladness

      Or how about this?
      Curry, Kendall Marshall, Charles Jenkins
      Thompson, Rush, sometimes Curry with Marshall as point
      Terrence Jones, McGuire, Jefferson, Chris Wright, Budinger/Parsons?
      Lee, Tyler, sometimes Jones
      Bogut, Ezeli, Gladness

      Delete
    8. I could go with either of this line ups but expectations for the team will need to be tempered through next season. Do the fans have the patience to stomach another .500 or below year? I'm already Trapped and in it for the long haul so I'm all for doing this thing right and not making any panic moves that help now and cripple later.

      Delete
    9. JT, that's why I want Lillard and Moultrie. I just have a feeling that their upsides are much higher than anticipated. I also really like bringing in Budinger more than Parsons... Budinger is still on his rookie contract I believe and will need to be resigned. We lose D Wright's, Rjeff's and Biedrin's contract in coming years. Budinger could be the future starting small forward.

      Delete
    10. On paper... Kendall Marshall seems like a better fit for the W's than Lillard. With Klay, Steph, Jefferson, Wright, Jenkins, Rush, Lee, & Bogut, GS needs a facilitator or a rebounder/defender more than a scorer. Trading back just a few slots for Marshall could be the best option available for the W's.

      Miller would be ideal but maybe too expensive. The W's only have the MLE & getting a high end backup PF/C should be the top priority. In this scenario, I'd say draft Marshall & trade D. Wright + the 30th and/or 35th pick to go after a higher draft pick.

      PG: Marshall - Curry - Jenkins
      SG: Curry - Thompson - Draft
      SF: Thompson - Jefferson - McGuire - Draft
      PF: Lee - MLE PF/C - Biens/Tyler/Draft
      C: Bogut - MLE PF/C - Biens/Tyler/Draft

      Delete
    11. Am I wrong in saying that Arnett Moultrie is that high end back up PF/C? Another player in that mold is St. Bonaventure's Andrew Nicholson who Matt Steinmetz has going right after Moultrie per his most recent mockdraft; they are 20 and 21. I have a hard time believing that either one of them will be a lesser NBA player than either of the Jones's Terrence and Perry the IIIrd. What's wrong with acquiring the #14 of Houston in a trade using draft picks and D Wright (and another player if necessary?) to land that pick?
      I agree that trading up for a higher pick is a big deal, while keeping the #7... I am not against picking Marshall at all. The only problem I have with him is how long is it going to take him to play defense? Marshall is 6-4 so he is a bigger PG, but he has only shown his court vision as an offensive point guard in college, there is nothing else to call upside there. It still looks like ESPN ranks Lillard above Marshall as the top Point available. Once again... we know the lack of free throws are a big deal for this team, Lillard is one of the best in the Nation at getting to the free throw line and converting, while he also can get to the rim. These are two things that are sorely missed since Ellis left. I do not want a team that is afraid to drive to the rim. Lillard would be a huge help over what Marshall could do. If there was a Rondo out there... well there's not. If Waiters passed the way Rondo does I would say Ok! Waiters it is, but at 12 points per game or so, Waiters is not that much of a scorer and not that much of a passer either... Neither is Lillard, but at least he has the handles and can finish inside and on the perimeter. With Bogut and Lee in the middle who both average more than 2 assists per game, maybe we don't need a true point. We do need someone who can use dribble penetration to the hoop and get to the free throw lane. Maybe its not Lillard. Maybe its Waiters or Lamb. Lamb seems to have been more effective when he was playing besides Kemba Walker... This last year, Lamb seemed much less efficient. I like how Waiters gets to the basket, but I want a Monta Ellis type next to Klay. If we as fans (and the ownership too) miss Monta, we will draft Lillard. Yep, that's it. And trade for the late lottery for a big like Leonard, Zeller or Moultrie. Am I wrong when I say that no one else's idea comes close? Or is my idea too much a CUT on fan favorite Curry? Or is it just not realistic?

      It is interesting that in the last 10 years there have been few pure point guards who have one the NBA Championship. There are Derek Fisher, Mario Chalmers, Tony Parker (as much a scoring guard as anyone) and there is Rajon Rondo who won just one. Did I forget someone? 1 pure point in the last 10 years won an NBA Chamionship? When the Pistons won with Chauncey Billups... he really was not a pure point either. My point is... the point needs to score in some way... he also needs to be healthy and it is time for the Warriors FANS AND MANAGEMENT to give up on Steph Curry's long term health. Or do you want to continue to be trapped in Golden State?

      Delete
    12. and we do not have the money to trade for GAY/IGUODALA/GRANGER/DENG. I have changed my mind. I think the way to do it in the new CBA is to draft the right players. We know in two years Biedrins' and Jefferson's contracts are done. That's 20 mil off the cap. That is the time to bring in the big time free agent. In the mean time we can still win with a fun team. Why not add two of the best, most exciting college players from this draft? Of those who are available to us, yes trading up for MKG or Beal could be great. Is that likely? What are you going to say when the best of this draft 3 years down the road is determined to be Moultrie and Lillard? oh and maybe Anthony Davis. Who knows?

      Delete
    13. First, I have no problem trading Steph Curry. I do have a problem trading him right now while his value is at an all time low. Waiting till the deadline should give him a chance to show he can play again and get us more then a late lottery pick. Even playing 50 games a year he's worth more than that.

      Second, I didn't see much of Moultrie but know that he's worth a late lottery pick if they were to move back up to that range. I'd rather get Nicholson at 30 but am not sure he's going to be there. I saw him play and was very impressed with his grasp of the game.

      Third, I was calling for Marshall in the very beginning of my draft prep because I thought he'd make the starters deadly on offense with Curry and Klay shooting and having someone to get Lee and Bogut the ball where they WANT it...People who solely look at assists for PG's miss the point, these guys know where the bigs want it and they get them easy buckets while hitting shooters in the numbers so they can go up in rhythm. I cooled for the reasons you mentioned. We know what he brings to the table, now how much will he be taking off of it? I wouldnt be upset if we got him cause we do need someone with his skill set though.

      Delete
    14. Shawn not sure on Moultrie but idk that the %'s are too good... Not being a scout I'm pretty much going to defer judgement on any Bigs not named Davis, or T-Rob at this point.

      You're right on the Marshall D & getting to the line. Lillard will have the same probs defending I think so in either case they will need to make up for the poor perimeter D on the other end of the floor.

      As long as the W's can rebound and contest shots it'll make a big difference, & I think they can w/ Bogut in the paint. I'll also 2nd what JT was saying on Marshall getting easy buckets for others. It's a chemistry thing, when teams play as a team (San Antonio) they are much, much more effective even if their individual talent isn't superior. The W's don't have KD or LJ so they need to figure out other ways to win.

      For sure the W's could use Curry & Thompson to get to the line & I think they both can in different ways given experience. Having Bogut will offset the lack of athleticism by bringing in a formidable post up presence (& passer) and that will allow for players like Lee & Thompson to cut in behind the double teams. An athletic SF shouldn't be too hard to find on the market or draft.

      Delete
  9. Right about now any deal getting rid of DW and Goose would be just fine with me. For the life in me I will never understand why Larry "used car salesman" or "insurance salesman" Riley didn't use the exception on Andres instead of Bell? And I never thought there would be a worse "standarounder" then Stephen Jackson at least SJ played defense(when he felt like it)Where DW doesn't have a tough bone in his entire body. Anyways, thanks for the article it made me want to chime in whereas those dumbasses like stiemitz want to make me shove his article down his throat. a reply to my bs would be appreciated. keep up the good work! -another faithful to fault?.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think we're all in the same boat on the Biedrins/Bell debacle, it's probably the worst decision of the Lacob era...Funny thing is it could have been worse. Imagine if the Clippers let us have Jordan. We'd have two overpaid 7 foot energy guys (well, one energy guy and one guy who blew a fuse 2 years ago)who bring little else.

      I'd package DW and AB for some mulch to contribute to the lanscaping efforts at the coliseum right now since they aren't helping on the court. If you read back through the archives I've been totally consistent on that and am running out of ways to say it...lol

      Thanks for the read and for the feedback...Misery loves company!

      Delete
    2. No Jordan = Bogut :D

      Delete
    3. And there's that...lol

      Chandler was a different story though...To have him AND Monta we'd have a real shot at getting the type of mid level guys who only choose winners without subtracting from the core. Like if Lamar Odom still had a pulse for example and we wanted him he'd have to really think about it.

      I respect what management did once they realized that just paying guys wasn't going to be enough.

      Delete
    4. It's possible, they would still need someone to win it at the end. If if if... I really believe Curry is capable of taking on that role w/ Ellis gone and with all the options the W's will have. Especially if they could add another one.

      Think about it, tie game, Curry has the ball w/ 20 secs left. The W's have 2 shooters in Rush & Thompson on either side and Bogut or Lee to pick and pop &/or grab a missed shot. It's a lot of options, but Curry w/ confidence is a very good decision maker and a great shooter.

      Would you rather have

      Ellis-Curry-Thompson/Wright/Rush/Jefferson-Lee-Jordan.

      -or-

      Curry-Thompson-Wright/Rush/Jefferson-Lee-Bogut

      The only move I've had any probs with even at the time was the amnesty.

      Delete
    5. Since Curry/Ellis/Chandler isn't an option I take Curry/Bogut and I agree with your final seconds theory BUT in that scenario I'd like to have Curry coming off screens and catching the ball with some space. Since he is a good decision maker he can either have the shot if the D lets one guy chase, pass if they switch or make the defender running at him look silly with a floater in the lane...That's why we need a solid back up point so in late game situations Steph can turn into a better passing (maybe better shooting) Reggie Miller...

      Delete
    6. Works for me, I was just thinking of all the options for the x's & o's.

      Curry/Ellis/Lee/Chandler would've be a tough argument but the Curry/Thompson/Bogut/Lee + 7th, 30th & 35th pick is pretty good too. You have to figure they would've been much better last year.

      Not to point fingers, there seemed to be a disconnect w/ the Curry-Ellis part. It's not so much that they weren't good enough but I do think they could've played a lot better team bball if they were on the same page like Rush & Thompson. Maybe a C would've cured it.

      Delete
    7. Yep, a bit of Reggie Miller/Ray Allen w/ better passing. He could be as good a shooter eventually but the clutch part is the key.

      Delete
    8. I was thinking the same, having a center to facilitate the traffic would have helped the backcourt succeed. Jordan wouldn't be that guy, probably not Chandler either and obviously there is no Ellis with Bogut so I guess it's just water under the bridge.

      Delete
    9. Agreed on the D subject with Steven Jackson & D.W. but would S. Jackson have performed the same way for Mark Jackson? Pop gets respect & takes no prisoners in S.A. It's his way or the pine. S. Jackson played well in my opinion & was worth the pick lost to obtain him. Was a short fix gamble that didn't pan out with a championship. I'm not sure whether he would have listened here. I still think this 30th pick can be redeemed for true need in this draft. Packaged with other picks to move up? I love the card game in this draft. We have many ways to attack this draft with the pick potential we possess. I see us as possibly getting two very usable players with the chance of a 3rd good bench player who can supply needed #'s from the pine. We could advance to upper picks but the value in the middle picks shows me no need to climb but again drop a few & retain a pick for a like player,less cash. J said value to me in this deal, #7/#30 for #14/#16. I'm smiling, but this waiting game until June 28th is what's killing me!

      Delete
    10. I'm with you, this time of year is torture...all you can do is speculate and I hate that! I'd rather be talking about stuff that has actually happened...

      Delete
    11. All the speculating & w/ maybe losing the pick has made it interesting... Seems like more of us are tuned now that they may finally have a PF/C combo.

      It'd be nice to get one very solid player + some bench players but otherwise I'm in full agreement SRG. The W's bench was much better last year, it's too bad the starters couldn't stay healthy.

      Delete
    12. same here. Two years ago we had a bunch or d leaguers on the bench and this season we had legit NBA talent for reserves but they all ended up having to start.

      Delete
  10. Draft Lilliard at #7 if available. If not, I like Terrence Jones as well. The #7 is higher than most believe they will go. Therefore comes the next idea...
    Trade for the #14 pick of the Houston Rockets. If Lillard was available at 7, I might trade Steph Curry and both the second round picks for the #14 and Chandler Parsons or Chase Budinger. I love them both and they are both very young, big energy guys who can hit the three on the wing.
    If Lillard is not available, of course the usual suspects are available ie Dorell Wright, Biedrins, R Jeff,... etc, while keeping Curry.
    Drafting Kendall Marshall and allowing him to complement a healthy curry is an interesting idea I have thought about. Marshall at the 1 and Curry at the 2? Hmmm.
    Per the above trade, the Warriors still hold onto the #30 pick. I would draft Festus Ezeli (Ekpe Udoh Vs. 2.0) who is likely to be there. Ezeli's draft combine numbers where solid. He also happens to be the only center who is slotted in the first round who doesn't have motor or love of the game issues.

    Does this give us a playoff lineup?
    Point - Andre Miller, Lillard, Charles Jenkins
    Shooting guard - Thompson, Rush
    Small Forward - Mcguire, Jefferson, Chris Wright, and Budinger/Parsons?
    Power Forward - Lee, Tyler, Moultrie
    Center - Bogut, Ezeli, Gladness

    Or how about this?
    Curry, Kendall Marshall, Charles Jenkins
    Thompson, Rush, sometimes Curry with Marshall as point
    Terrence Jones, McGuire, Jefferson, Chris Wright, Budinger/Parsons?
    Lee, Tyler, sometimes Jones
    Bogut, Ezeli, Gladness

    I would take Lillard and my first scenario. Miller would start at point until Lillard was ready... It might be that Lillard is and explosive 6th man who could do much as a team leader early. With him and Moultrie the Warriors are set for the short term and the long term with star players.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Forgot to say much about Arnett Moultrie who I would take at #14. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Arnett-Moultrie-5754/

      This is a guy who I think is highly undervalued. Just check him out. He is an inside out scoring 4 with handles. He also happened to lead the SEC in rebounding. He has an attitude and I love it. He played one year at Miss St after transferring from UTEP. He is likely undervalued do to not being productive early at UTEP and character issues. He blew up at Miss St last year with great numbers. I look at him as Chris Bosh potential.

      Delete
    2. I wonder if Miller would consider it. He still thinks he can start for a winner and people arent quite sure what to think of us yet. Speaking to the Howard scenario, I was just giving an example of how we can think bigger at the deadline then we can right now. Some of the proposed deals out there right now seem damn near desperate but if we can accumulate talent and assets we can operate from a position of moderate power later.

      Delete
    3. 7th & 35th picks + D. Wright to trade up for Beal.

      Maybe it's crazy to think Klay can play the three but I still like this line up. If it doesn't work, Beal or Thompson would make a great 6th man or trading chip and Jefferson is a reasonable option at the 3.

      PG: Curry - 30th - Jenkins
      SG: Beal - Thompson - 30th/52nd
      SF: Thompson - Jefferson - McGuire - 30th/52nd
      PF: Lee - MLE PF/C - Biens/Tyler
      C: Bogut - MLE PF/C - Biens/Tyler


      http://www.nba.com/draft/2012/prospects/bradley-beal/

      Kentucky coach John Calipari

      “What he is, is a truly prototype two guard in [the NBA]. What he can do is he plays above the rim. Obviously [he’s] a knockdown shooter. When you space the court and do pick and rolls with him in the game and he’s out on the floor, you’ve got to play him, which opens up the court for everybody else. And he rebounds the ball. He’s good. One of the issues for us when we play them is his rebounding. Now you want to talk about scoring and all the other things, he rebounds, he goes after balls. He’s a terrific player.”

      --------------------
      From the above link

      "Attacks the rim with authority"

      "Beal showed an ability to finish at the rim, and he was also among the top rebounding guards in the nation. Early in the year he deferred to upperclassmen, but down the stretch as his confidence grew, he became a go-to guy... He easily earned All-SEC and All-Freshman team honors as voted on by the league’s coaches, the first player in Florida history to do so."
      ------

      Florida coach Billy Donovan

      “I think he realized when he wasn't shooting the ball well that there were other parts of his game that he could step up and impact the game. With his rebounding, his driving, his assists. He's a total chemistry guy. And I've been around a lot of really, really good players, that they can make it all about themselves. He has a great respect for the returning players. He doesn't want to step on anybody's toes. He's aware of where his place is on the team. He never, ever is disrespectful to players. He's got a great awareness as a young kid of what team chemistry is all about. And I would say he's a great facilitator of team chemistry.”

      -------

      "He’s a big-time scorer, who, although his 3-point stroke was a bit inconsistent in college, is a great shooter. He’s also a strong finisher. And as an added bonus, he’s a great rebounder."

      http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/sam_amick/06/13/mock.draft.2/index.html

      "Passing on him could wind up being the sort of move that haunts any executive... for years to come."

      "STRENGTHS: Extremely well-rounded. … Struggled early his freshman season, but shot it well the second half of the year -- and is a terrific perimeter shooter with a clean stroke and deep range. … Has near flawless mechanics when he sets his feet -- with a quick release and good lift. … Not a one-dimensional scorer as he can also put in on the floor and has a deceptively explosive first step. … Finishes well around the basket due to his physicality. … Rebounds extremely well for his position. … Long arms which make him appear - and allow him to play - bigger than his size. … Has a terrific feel for the game and a high basketball IQ. … Passes well for a two-guard. … Is willing and able to defend and has shown the desire to guard at the college level. … Terrific team guy, who will blend in with anyone and possesses a great demeanor and poise. … Makes quality decisions and rarely forces bad shots."

      http://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/big-board

      Delete
    4. If Chris Mullin can be an all-star/retired jersey at the SF position, why not Klay Thompson at SF?

      Delete
    5. I guess Waiters or Lamb at #7 could work in the same manner but the chemistry & rebounding thing makes a huge difference.

      Delete
    6. I agree. If Klay can slide to 3, problem solved. If not, no big deal...The depth at the guard spot and scoring playmakers off the bench are needed as bad or worse than the small forward. I think that is going to be the next column. I like the Mullin point too but his biggest strength on top of skill was his legendary work ethic. If Klay can get to that level he can definitely succeed at the 3. Whether it's Beal, Lillard or Waiters I think we'll be getting a component that will benefit the team more than Barnes or Jones at the 3. At that point we'll have a SF logjam and no depth at 1/2/4/5 positions.

      Delete
    7. I don't mean that Klay can be a H-O-F SF like Mulling... Klay's probably going to be a liability on D no matter where he plays but he can make up for it w/ his shooting.

      Delete
    8. I wouldn't trust Klay to slide to the three. How about trading for Chase Budinger of the Rockets who currently has played the 3 for the Rockets for 3 years... They do have two middle round picks that we value where Moultrie, Zeller and Leonard could be available.

      Delete
    9. JT your above post about the logjam at 3 with no guard or big man depth is great. You are right. If there are no small forwards at that point in the draft, then the Warriors will draft best player who very likely could be a guard.
      I don't want Waiters. Not enough of a scorer for me. I don't trust the comparisons to D Wade that have come up. I know he is great at attacking the basket, which the Warriors really need after losing Ellis. I understand the slow pace of the game of Syracuse affects the PPG for Waiters, but 12.6 ppg? Ok, I am going to have to check out Waiters too, he is rising up the draft boards, and I could be wrong about my impression of him.

      Delete
    10. They really need at least 1 quality backup PF/C. That's why I think they have to get a sure thing via the MLE or trade markets.

      Wouldn't Klay at the 3 upgrade D. Wright, B. Rush, & R. Jefferson?

      So far as I know, not too many coaches mention the word "chemistry" 3 times in one paragraph when talking about one of their own players (see below). Especially when it's a 6ft. 3+ do it all Frosh that grabbed 6.7 rebounds per game.
      ------
      Florida coach Billy Donovan

      “I think he realized when he wasn't shooting the ball well that there were other parts of his game that he could step up and impact the game. With his rebounding, his driving, his assists. He's a total chemistry guy. And I've been around a lot of really, really good players, that they can make it all about themselves. He has a great respect for the returning players. He doesn't want to step on anybody's toes. He's aware of where his place is on the team. He never, ever is disrespectful to players. He's got a great awareness as a young kid of what team chemistry is all about. And I would say he's a great facilitator of team chemistry.”

      http://www.nba.com/draft/2012/prospects/bradley-beal/

      Delete
    11. I read that same review and it got me really liking him. As far as Klay at the 3 I think he's too frail right now but if he works his ass off he can get there. For teh time being I have no problem having him start at the 2 and drafting a young guard to come off the bench. We need the depth and it will be good to be able to let a kid grow into a role as oppossed to dumping the expectations on him immediately. Even when Klay was forced into the line up there were no expectations because we were tanking, all he had to do was play his game, take as many shots as he wanted get comfortable.

      Delete
    12. To the same point I don't expect Klay to be an HOFer either but he is going to have to put in serious work to be the 3...Mully's work ethic was legendary so I hope Klay has at least a similar desire to be great and is willing to put in the work to do it.

      Delete
    13. Well you don't learn to shoot like that just by playing PS3 lol. Klay might actually be able to approach the shooting ability of Mullin, but Mullin was a jedi master at points in the paint. The inside-out combo is what made him great.

      It's sounding unlikely they can get Beal but there's a few other SG/PG's that would still leave the option of Klay at SF open. #7 might be a bit high for him, but on paper, Kendall Marshall seems like the best PG fit chemistry wise for the W's. It'd let Curry play off the ball at SG a bit & also provides insurance against his ankle.

      Delete
    14. If you're talking chemistry then Marshall is definitely the guy you want...He'd make a better starter because the first unit needs a facilitator while the second unit needs a scorer...which do we need more?

      Delete
    15. I really like the idea of drafting Marshall, even at #7, but we could move down to get him. The Warriors have enough shooters/scorers that Marshall could be huge... Problem is who would he guard? Also it would be really tempting to use Marshall and Curry at the 1 and 2 respectively, but then could they realistically guard any 1/2 combination that other playoff caliber teams throw at us? I don't think so. That would have to be a second unit only line-up.

      Delete
    16. D would be a challenge, and is a legitimate concern, probably enough for the W's to go another direction. They'd have to make up for it on the other end to some extent & rely on scrappy defense & mainly just contesting shots. I think Curry's a better defender than he gets credit for, but Marshall sounds like he could be pretty bad. That's what's so nice about getting someone like Beal, at least he'd make up for the smaller front-court by rebounding like a mini-barkley.

      Delete
    17. mini Barkley lol. Yes I've seen Beal rebounds well.

      Delete
  11. Matt(CSN) addressed a great point this morning, "Flopping". "FEET" were given to us from a gifted person yet there's problems. Many in G.S. are either not aware they possess them or how to use them. As a true defender you "Attack" the offensive player, not the opposite. Our "D" philosophy stinks(McGuire,a few others excused). Most NBA players vocabulary when on "D"? "Lazy,Passive,Soft". There is no "soft in defense. Stop screwing around & give me effort for dollars spent. We're already broke. 1/2 of the game is not satisfactory in my books. When all here sell out on the "D" we will win, consistently. "D" Wins Consistently Every Season. The best play the "D". If you move the feet you won't have to flop. You will give the official no other choice than to call the offensive foul. It's rather obvious when a offensive foul is committed. Each year including this one dominate defensive effort has overcome all obstacles. Great stats in nearly every category depends on "D". Even average players accelerate their game. Divides the men from the boys as I see it. I'm tired of loosing just as you. Let's make some common sense changes that never cost you any more than you were already paying. Just play both ends of the court. Is this too much for me to ask? I ask you as a true W's fan how much does loosing bother you? My formula for winning: Sell out team "D">Team rebounding> control of court transition> great high % shots> opponents foul trouble> uncontested high % free throws. Simple, now lets do it here. Players, stop cheating the ownership & fans by playing BOTH ends of the court, correctly. S

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That was a nice headline to read, that the NBA would be punishing floppers in the near futute...I'm not overly optimistic since they "addressed" the charge/block scenario a year or two ago and they still butcher that call on a daily basis...JUST SWALLOW YOUR DAMN WHISTLE ALREADY!!! for these guys to play the game instead of the rules and like you say, earn those over inflated contracts.

      Delete
    2. If the W's can finally win the rebound battles it'll go a long, long way towards improving the D.

      Delete
  12. Chase Budinger SF of the Houston Rockets... Shot above 40% from threes last year, 77% from the line, 9.6ppg, 3.7rpg in 22mpg. He is a wing that shoots threes and cuts to the basket, finishing very well at the rim. This is a skill that the Warriors could really use, as the team settles for too many 3's without penetration. ESPN's Hollinger says his defensive stats are solid and he held opposing 3's to a 12.7 PER. This is a 24 year old kid that I think we could trade for and make a into a solid, even explosive starting 3 for years.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If Budinger comes cheap I'm in but I don't know what I'd give up for him and I don't know how much he upgrades the starting 3 spot. Seems we'd still be at or below league average. I don't know that Morey in Houston would give him up for what we have to offer.

      Delete
    2. He doesn't look available, but the Rockets seem to be able to part ways with Kyle Lowry or Samuel Dalembert. Dalembert makes too much money, but who knows? Lowry could be interesing too.

      Delete
  13. I know I've been saying don't trade the pick but I'd like to propose a trade...

    Warriors: A. Jefferson, 1st rd pick debt is settled

    Jazz: #7 Pick, A. Biedrins, D. Wright

    Utah gets their PG Lillard & a SF, the W's get badass Bogut/Lee insurance, an expiring contract, and resolve their draft debt issues.

    Is it a fair deal?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. (or) Jazz: #7 Pick, R. Jefferson

      Delete
    2. I love it but I don't think the Jazz will see it that way. Al has more value then that but if we got him i'd immediately start shopping D. Lee for a pick in next season's draft, sign Rush & McGuire and use the rest of the picks this year for front court and point guard depth...call it in JR!

      Delete
    3. yeah like JT said, that's a great idea for the Warriors, but not so good for the Jazz. On the other hand, what do we do with the often injured Curry? It just gets worse. If I'm wrong and Curry is great like we all know he can be, I'm as happy as anyone.

      Delete
    4. Just give Curry a minute to regain his value. Twenty good games to start the season will double his trade value and put it back where it was two years ago.

      Delete
    5. I think everyone is forgetting how good Steph really is. Look at that run when he was at Davidson. He's more than just a shooter, hes a guy who can take over a game at any given time. Thats a rare attribute that the Warriors should use more. Instead of making him a traditional point guard they should just let him score (like Kobe) until teams double him, when he gets everyone else involved (unlike Kobe).

      Delete
    6. Exactly ap123. It's hard to say how much the Davidson part counts just because the NBA is different than NCAA's.

      Still, all you have to do is look at what Curry did for the last half of his 2nd season on a bum ankle... That was w/ out a C, w/ Monta on the ball much of the time, & w/ a limited # of shots. He's shown the ability to take over NBA games but it's usually been for like the first 9-10 mins of the 4th qr.

      If that translates over to longer stretches as he gains experience, especially the last 2 mins of the 4th, then Curry's among the top PG's in the NBA. I think he will if..if..if.. the team can stay healthy.

      Delete
    7. I don't know that people have forgotten as much as they haven't seen enough and seen it consistently. I never support selling low unless it's a Stack Jack type head case. Being that we get one full year before we have to start thinking about an extension I hope he can prove his value before the deadline. West and Myers need as many assets to work with as possible at mid season this year. There is no way to gauge what this team is capable of until they are healthy and on the floor. If it gels and it works we're on our way. If it works but doesn't quite gel we swing for the fences at the deadline and if it doesn't work and it doesn't gel we're Trapped in Golden State again...If, If, If is right...

      Delete
    8. There are no sacred cows or golden geese on this team until the prove they are winners but at the same time we need to give them time to prove that one way or another.

      Delete
    9. I'm the only one that seems so ready to cut ties with Curry. I'm not going to discuss that anymore. I think he is a great player and you all know where I stand... so hopefully he recovers fully.

      Delete
    10. Maybe this minute cause I don't agree with taking 60 cents on the dollar but in 6 months if he recovers and a good deal is out there I'll be on board.

      Delete
  14. You're probably right on Al Jefferson's value but the Jazz might be trying to move him according to the rumors.

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1225003-nba-rumors-utah-jazz-must-flip-frontcourt-talent-for-first-round-pick

    Maybe the W's can get one of Utah's PF/C's, & get rid of the draft debt some other way. I think the Jazz would love to get Lillard.

    ReplyDelete
  15. http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-draft-measurements.php?year=2012&sort2=DESC&draft=0&pos=0&source=All&sort=6

    haven't seen anyone reference this on this page so...

    draftexpress.com released combine measurements!

    This page is by standing reach and is the way I like to look at potential big men. It is super interesting to see that a Center like Zeller has a similar standing reach to a SF like MKG. Both are at 8'8.5". I thought MKG was a smallish SF until I saw this. Just a different way to think about it and evaluate.

    I was also amazed at some of the verticals as well as lane agility, bench and sprint.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I was kind of thinking the same, it almost doesn't sound possible.

      Delete