By Justin Taylor
This is it. The
moment we’ve all been waiting for.
The day we worked our tails off for all season long. It wasn’t easy but now it’s time to see
if our hard work and dedication to losing will pay off in the end. This where the mediocre get separated
from the terrible and the terrible separate from the atrocious. Tomorrow, ladies and gentlemen, is the
annual big game in Bay Area basketball that I refer to as the Golden State
Superbowl. It’s not as if anyone
reading is wondering what I’m talking about but for anyone outside the Bay,
this is (in my best Marv Albert voice) the NBA Draft Lottery!
At this time every year I’m overcome with excitement and
embarrassment all in one breath.
On one hand it gives you a sense of optimism that this could be our
year. On the other hand it’s just
another example of how pathetic our team is every single season. If the ping pong balls bounce our way
it’ll give Jerry West, Bob Myers and Joe Lacob a real asset to work with
whether it be through the draft or through trade. If we get another bad bounce those three will have their
work cut out for them as they fill the roster, sell tickets and do it all
without getting booed out of their own building.
The last time we struck it rich it turned out to be fools gold
This is the time where all of the tanking pays off, at least
in theory. First off, not all NBA
Drafts are created equal. For
every Akeem (as Hakeem was known on draft day), Shaquille, C-Webb and LeBron
there is a Pervis Ellison, Michael Olowokandi or Joe Smith (aka Soft Serve). This draft falls somewhere in the
middle of those examples and for 12 of the 14 lottery teams it probably wasn’t
worth tanking games for. This is
not the LeBron draft where three of the top five picks were superstars (Chris Bosh was never a superstar) nor
is it a remake of 1984 where three of the 20 greatest players of all time came
off the board in the first five picks (Olajuwon, Jordan and Barkley). In my mind there is one grand prize in
this draft and a bunch of blue ribbons.
If you’ve got a shot at the Unibrow (Anthony Davis) and your
team sucks, you tank. The
Charlotte Bobcats went above and beyond to give themselves every opportunity to
land the one “guaranteed” star in this draft. The Unibrow isn’t Tim Duncan, Patrick Ewing or Hakeem Olajuwon
but it’s safe to say he’s no Joe Smith, Kwame Brown or Andrea Bargnani. Since there is only one guy I expect to
be a star coming out this year I am calling this the UniWow Draft, which would
make tomorrow’s lottery the UniWow Sweepstakes for everyone but the Warriors
(because I’ve already established it’s our Superbowl).
Outside of Davis you’ve got Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (a
potential all star with a high ceiling but a long way to go to get there),
Thomas Robinson (probably the most physically ready prospect of the three) and
a substantial drop thereafter.
Andre Drummond is a huge man and athletic freak who has yet to pair
skills with those physical gifts. He
offers the biggest boom or bust potential since he could be a David Robinson
type or a DJ Mbenga. Perry Jones
invokes names like Brandan Wright and Anthony Randolph on a regular basis and I
don’t see Warrior fans clamoring for another dose of that medicine. Those last two round out the guys where
the reward could potentially outweigh
the risk. Based on this assessment
of the 2012 NBA draft (one star and four potential all stars) I’ll repeat my original
statement that this draft wasn’t worth the tank job for most of the teams
involved. I see a lot of really
good rotation guys with ten-year careers helping good teams but you don’t tank
for solid role players.
The Warriors situation was obviously different. Our choice was to add a top seven pick
to next year’s squad by tanking or give away the number eight pick. No grey area there, just facts. Unless we jump to the top three
tomorrow I’m not overly impressed with any of the options available at our slot. That doesn’t mean that I wasn’t rooting
for losses and am not clutching my lucky Chris Mullin (the seventh pick in
1985) bobblehead as I hope for lightning to strike or for the order to stay as
is. If I rooted for a less cursed
franchise I’d probably be really confident about keeping our pick right now but
I don’t and I’m not. Saying we
have a 12% chance of moving up and a 75% chance of staying put feels more like
a 0% chance of improving and a 50/50 coin flip away from giving our pick to the
Jazz.
Last time we really tanked we ended up with this guy instead of Yao Ming
If we do keep our pick I don’t think that it will yield an
elite player who will come in and make an immediate impact but that’s not
exactly what I’m crossing my fingers for.
That would require a lot of dominoes to fall in exactly the right spot
and at this point the basketball gods have given no indication that’s on the
horizon. Below I’m outlining what
I’d like to see happen on draft day in all possible scenarios.
Jump to number 1: Sign the Unibrow as soon as you win the
lottery and don’t look back. As an
added precaution I’d also wrap him in bubble wrap and lock him in a padded room
until training camp starts. Leave
nothing to chance. Speaking of
leaving nothing to chance, I wouldn’t make any other major moves until the
season starts, our current core is healthy and you have a solid idea of how Uni
stacks up against NBA competition right now. At that point the Rush and McGuire re-signings fill out the
roster and we are starting to look like contenders. If he pans out as expected I’d actually look to move Curry
in a package for Rajon Rondo to make Uni, Lee and Bogut more effective on offense
while making us one of the best defensive teams in the league. That’s getting way too far ahead of
myself so lets look at the other scenarios.
Jump to number 2: Draft Kidd-Gilchrist and follow that up
by trading Dick Jefferson and Dorrell Wright to anyone with some magic beans to
spare. You’d still want to resign
Rush and McGuire for depth, shooting and versatility but you would have your
small forward of the future if not the present.
Jump to number 3: I think I’d be torn between Robinson
and Drummond because you get into the classic argument of ceiling vs. NBA
ready. Robinson will contribute in
the defense and rebounding departments immediately while Drummond could end up
the best player in the draft or good for nothing but six fouls in a worst-case
scenario. This is where Jerry
West’s scouting and intuition will be put to its biggest test in Golden
State. Before we go on the clock I
would expect the selection to be shopped heavily. I think the team would be better if you moved Biedrins,
Wright and the pick to Philly for Andre Iguodala but I’d listen to arguments
against it.
Stay at number 7: Shop till you drop young Bob
Myers. Unless the Logo says he
really likes someone who will be on the board at that point I’m looking at
every single option available. The trades won’t be nearly as sweet and
would require more risk then they would with the second or third picks but
believe it or not I’ve got a few thoughts on that…
Trade #1: Biedrins,
Wright, the Udoh trade exception, the #7, #35 and #52 picks to Atlanta for Joe
Johnson and Zaza Pachulia. Sounds
crazy but it saves the Hawks almost $40 million dollars. I’d be vary weary of those last two
years on Johnson’s contract but it makes us the best shooting, most balanced
offense in the entire league if they go for it.
Trade #2: Richard
Jefferson and Dorell Wright or the Udoh trade exception (whichever they prefer)
plus the #7 pick and the second rounders for Rudy Gay. Again, it might sound crazy but it
saves another small market team $20 million after signing the pick.
You can see the common theme of any trade involving the
seventh pick involves a lot of risk in terms of dollars but one thing that
Lacober hasn’t been since arriving is cheap. They may be ridiculously big talkers but they are also big
spenders looking to make a splash while trying to give half of the fan base a
reason to stay on board as they threaten to leave Oakland. I’ll have more on that soon but until
then, come on lucky number 7!